Europe's dependence moment

Welcome to Rapporteur. This is Eddy Wax in Luxembourg, with Nicoletta Ionta in Brussels. Got a story we should know about? Drop us a line – we read every message.

Need-to-knows:

• EU-US: Europe needs America for everything
• Diplomacy: Bulgaria opens its skies for Putin
• Climate: The Commission is carving up the Green Deal

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From the capital

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Kaja Kallas may be Europe’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs, but Donald Trump is setting the agenda. Wherever the EU wants to project influence, it is penned in by the American President, caught between its weakness and fear of spooking Washington.

This was on show in Luxembourg yesterday where foreign ministers decided next to nothing about Ukraine or Gaza – because they can’t.

In both cases, the EU’s problems are tellingly similar.

For instance, the EU mainstream wants a seat at the table when Viktor Orbán hosts Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump for talks on Ukraine. It won’t get one, and some powerful foreign ministers have quietly made peace with that.

The EU also wants a seat on Trump’s nebulous Board of Peace that will administrate the transition to a Hamas-free Gaza. Keen to show it’s a player and not just a payer, the EU has floated ambitious initiatives for rebuilding the strip. But after a bold announcement of an “instrument,” the Commission is now busy bartering with capitals like Paris about who can co-host Egypt’s Gaza reconstruction conference.

When the US whistles, the EU comes padding over. 5% on defence? Sure we’ll spend it. Lopsided trade deal? Fine. Buy our weapons to send to Ukraine? Deal.

EU foreign ministers on Monday agreed to ban Russian gas imports – but not oil, which still delivers €300 million a month to Putin’s war chest. Far from sovereignty, the results are clear: the United States now has a 70% share in the EU’s LNG imports and eyes a long-term role as energy daddy.

The tacit agreement was that this would secure Trump’s support for Ukraine. Will it last past Budapest?

Trump and Orbán have immobilised Europe’s diplomatic assets. When I stumbled across Hungary’s Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó, he was feeling smug about the shockwaves created by the summit. “It was such a strange feeling to see the frustration here … I understand that many here … in mainstream Europe will make all possible efforts to avoid this summit from happening,” he said.

To top it all, Hungary isn’t even blocking a new, 19th sanctions package, the EU’s most immediate tool to pressure Russia. That’s Slovakia. (It hasn’t stopped the brainstorming about the 20th.)

And when it comes to creating a reparations loan for Ukraine out of Russian frozen assets, there are now reports that the US is getting cold feet, adding a fresh layer of anxiety to Belgium’s reservations, which alone made real progress this week impossible.

Others are more optimistic than me. Margus Tsakhna, Estonia’s foreign minister, labelled himself a “realist” and said the EU was doing more for Ukraine than it was a year ago.

“Russia is not doing well economically,” he said. “And Russia is just using these peace processes to win time.”

And yet today in Strasbourg when Maroš Šefčovič announces the Commission’s 2026 policy agenda, its grandiose title “Europe’s Independence Moment” is unlikely to convince anyone.

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Sofia-gate?

Bulgaria has offered to allow Vladimir Putin to get to his meeting with Donald Trump through its airspace. Read the full story by Thomas Møller Nielsen, here.

Kallas defends Selmayr-shaped role

The head of the EU’s diplomatic wing defended putting out a job advert for a hugely influential deputy at the External Action Service, which, as Rapporteur scooped last week, had Martin Selmayr’s fingerprints all over it. “We need a strong person,” Kallas told reporters. “My aim has always been that Europe is a geopolitical power.”

Kallas did not mention Selmayr by name, but following our reporting that hiring the German heavyweight could put her on a collision course with the Commission, she assured reporters she has a “very good” relationship with Ursula von der Leyen.

Maintaining the political fiction of Israel sanctions

Are we heading for a stalemate where the EU’s proposed sanctions on Israel live in a sort of permanent limbo? Kaja Kallas said there were “very divergent views” on what to do with them, while saying the “context has changed” after the ceasefire with Hamas.

Remember: Even when Israel was invading Gaza City in the face of worldwide outrage, the EU couldn’t agree to impose the sanctions. “For now, we are not taking them off the table, but we are not moving with them either,” Kallas said.

Kallas is getting it in the neck from Germany’s CDU, whose politicians Armin Laschet and Dennis Radke personally criticised her.

Some, though, are calling for the sanctions to remain hanging in the air, viewing them as the only real leverage the EU has. Commissioner Hadja Lahbib, told reporters Monday: “It’s important that the Commission, as the guardian of the treaties, can say it’s ready to activate its measures if humanitarian aid doesn’t get in.”

Middle East muddles Norway’s moral compass

Norway’s entanglement with the Middle East is longstanding and shaped by domestic politics, a sense of moral duty, and oil. It’s a complex cocktail that has been stirred by Israel’s war in Gaza, which provoked fierce debate over whether Norway’s giant oil fund should divest from companies tied to Israel’s military operations.

Budget negotiations were blocked by the Socialist Left Party, which refused to engage in talks unless the fund cut ties with Israel-linked firms. This opposition has been dropped since the Gaza peace deal was announced, but public anger about the fund’s investments remains, with other parties now taking up the call for divestments.

The public investment’s credibility depends on it staying above politics, the fund’s managers have long argued. But that balance has now tipped, the chair of its Ethics Council, told Jacob Wulff Wold. And the fallout has fundamentally altered how Norway does diplomacy.

The Great Green Deal Carve-Up

It’s good that the Commission spent five years building the Green Deal. Now it has something to please everyone as it dismantles it, line by line.

In a letter to EU leaders ahead of Thursday’s summit, Ursula von der Leyen teased tweaks to key climate files, as political pressure to simplify legislation mounts, and as Robert Fico demands a win in exchange for agreeing to more Russia sanctions.

The EU’s 2040 climate goal, biofuel policy, and carbon tax prices could all face changes.

Meanwhile in Strasbourg, MEPs will today vote to axe a law on forest data collection. Most right-wing and some liberal MEPs will reject the European Commission’s proposal. The EPP’s Alexander Bernhuber said the law was “a legacy of Commissioner Timmermans.”

The EU’s new CO2 price on fuels, which could raise prices for diesel and petrol by 20 cents from 2027, will also be sent for review by Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra today – putting the law at the mercy of MEPs who have little reason to back it. Left-wing lawmakers hate it for being socially unjust, while right-wing politicians reject climate action outright.

Meet our new best friends: The Taliban

The European Commission confirmed it has engaged in “exploratory contacts at the technical level” with Afghanistan’s de facto authorities, in coordination with the EU’s External Action Service, to discuss the return of Afghan nationals. The EU does not formally recognise the Taliban government, which took power in 2021.

Over the weekend, Belgium sent a letter to the EU’s migration commissioner, co-signed by 19 other member states, urging the establishment of an EU-wide mechanism to coordinate the deportation of Afghan nationals without legal residence status or those convicted of crimes.

MEPs left behind?

Ministers meet today to discuss the seven-year EU budget from 2028 onwards, having tentatively locked in the Commission’s “simpler and more efficient structure,” according to a draft document obtained by Euractiv’s Angelo di Mambro and Jacob Wulff Wold.

Countries plan to debate the most controversial reforms next month.

Meanwhile MEPs are still fighting over whether to publicly reject a key part of the proposal that would merge EU agriculture and regional subsidies into national plans negotiated between EU capitals and Brussels. MEPs face being irrelevant as capitals push on without them.

Migration breakfast, industrial snack

Before Thursday’s European Council kicks off at 10 a.m., leaders will warm up with their usual side events, starting with the now one-year-old migration breakfast, which gathers around 15 member states.

Right after, they’ll move on to an informal meeting on industrial policy hosted by the Belgian prime minister and the European Commission president, joined by Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, and Austria, one official said.

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The capitals

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BERLIN 🇩🇪

Chancellor Friedrich Merz has refused to retract his contentious remarks linking migration to changes in Germany’s “cityscape”, insisting on Monday that he would “underline” rather than withdraw them. Speaking after a party meeting on migration and the AfD, Merz urged critics to “ask their daughters and friends”, claiming they would confirm there is “a problem, especially after dark.” His comments, made last week, sparked accusations of racism and discrimination. Over the weekend, hundreds protested in Berlin under the slogan “We are the cityscape.” Merz dismissed the demonstrations, accusing opponents of “driving wedges” instead of addressing real issues.

PARIS 🇫🇷

French authorities are under pressure after four suspects who stole eight jewels of “inestimable heritage value” from the Louvre on Sunday remain at large. Justice Minister Gérald Darmanin warned the burglary “projects a very negative image of France.” According to leaked excerpts from an upcoming report by the Court of Auditors, the Louvre has faced “persistent delays” in deploying essential security equipment to protect its collections. The theft has reignited concerns over cultural security and state oversight at one of the world’s most visited museums.

VIENNA 🇦🇹

Austria’s government is moving forward with plans to ban headscarves for girls under 14, despite growing criticism. The public consultation ends on Thursday, with the law expected to take effect in the second school term. Integration Minister Claudia Plakolm defended the measure, saying it aims to “protect girls from oppression” and will be accompanied by support programmes. However, legal experts and the Islamic Religious Community argue the ban unfairly targets Muslims and could be unconstitutional, recalling a similar law struck down in 2020. Schools will enforce the policy, escalating from parental consultations to fines of up to €1,000 for non-compliance.

ROME 🇮🇹

Italy is in uproar after a social media post by US President Donald Trump claimed that Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is pursuing a direct trade agreement with Washington and preparing to scale back support for Ukraine. The video was shared on social media with the caption: “Giorgia Meloni challenges the EU and seeks a direct trade deal with Trump. Brilliant move.” Opposition figures accused Meloni of allowing Trump to “dictate Italy’s foreign policy,” warning that any unilateral move on trade would “undermine European unity”. The Italian government firmly rejected the allegations, stressing that international trade negotiations are an exclusive EU competence.

MADRID 🇪🇸

Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez announced on Monday that Spain would propose an end to seasonal time changes to the European Council. “It no longer makes sense,” the Spanish leader wrote on social media, stating that more than 80% of the European population wants an end to the time change, which doesn’t bring sufficient energy savings to justify the measure.

ATHENS 🇬🇷

A dinner hosted at the British Museum has sparked outrage in Greece, after it took place in the gallery housing Greek sculptures central to the dispute over the Parthenon Marbles. The event, called the Pink Ball, featured guests dressed in pink moving among the contested artefacts. Athens, which has long demanded the sculptures be returned and installed in the Acropolis Museum, called the dinner “offensive to cultural property” and accused the British Museum of risking damage to the exhibits.

WARSAW 🇵🇱

Polish President Karol Nawrocki and Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda on Monday inaugurated a new section of the Via Baltica motorway on the Polish-Lithuanian border – the only high-capacity road linking the Baltic states with Poland and the rest of Europe. Nawrocki highlighted the route’s “dual purpose”, serving both economic development and regional defence. The Via Baltica forms part of two TEN-T corridors – the North Sea-Baltic and Baltic-Black Sea-Aegean routes – and is considered vital for NATO, enhancing military mobility on the Alliance’s eastern flank by enabling rapid deployment of forces to the Baltic states if required.

PRAGUE 🇨🇿

Czechia has offered gas support to Slovakia after EU energy ministers endorsed the phase-out of Russian gas imports, with a full ban planned for January 2028. Only Hungary and Slovakia withheld backing, citing supply security and price rises. Acknowledging the concerns, Czechia’s trade and industry minister offered to transport gas to Slovakia via western routes. Historically, gas flowed east-to-west through Slovakia, generating transit revenue for Bratislava. A reversal would shift economics, with Prague charging for deliveries to Slovakia.

BRATISLAVA 🇸🇰

The Speaker of the Slovak Parliament confirmed on Monday that local and regional elections will take place as scheduled in 2026, effectively ending Prime Minister Robert Fico’s recent attempt to postpone them by one year – a move that raised concerns among local officials and stirred unease even within his governing coalition. Municipal and regional leaders unanimously rejected any extension, warning it would breach constitutional principles and undermine democratic norms.

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Schuman roundabout

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SOCIALISTS SKIP BREAKFAST: European socialists will not hold their traditional meeting before Thursday’s European Council. Is it because there’s too much infighting? No, it’s because the party congress took place over the weekend in Amsterdam and already “brought all leaders together”, a PES spokesperson said. (But of the three centre-left leaders sitting at the EU’s highest table, only one – Spain’s Pedro Sánchez – showed up in the Netherlands.)

RARE UNITY: In Strasbourg, 421 members voted in favour of having a debate on intimidation of investigative journalists after a murder attempt against an Italian journalist last week. Five members abstained, but not a single one – none, zilch, nada – voted against. A Parliament spokesperson said they could not recall this ever happening during the current mandate – where political divides seem deeper than ever.

Palestine protesters encircle Berlaymont: The group of pro-Palestine protesters who began their sit-in at noon on Sunday have been walking around the Berlaymont building on Monday. In the evening, the group was happy to report that Belgian police had let them stay seated – only to later announce that authorities were planning to remove the protesters from Commission premises on Wednesday at noon.

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Also on Euractiv

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France’s former president Nicolas Sarkozy will be incarcerated in La Santé prison in Paris on Tuesday, where he will start his five-year sentence for criminal conspiracy over alleged Libyan financing of his 2007 presidential campaign. He will be welcomed by the prison governor before being escorted to a secure isolation unit.

The former president will not receive special treatment and will undergo standard intake procedures: identity checks, fingerprinting, and assignment of an inmate number. Sarkozy will be held in a solitary cell of 9 to 12 square metres, equipped with a fixed bed, table, shower, and hotplate. In addition, he will be allowed to purchase a refrigerator and television from the prison shop and buy credits to use the monitored in-cell telephone.

His legal team will file a request for conditional release on Tuesday, and the Court of Appeal must issue a ruling within two months. Sarkozy’s appeal trial is already scheduled for March next year.

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Agenda

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📍 General Affairs Council meeting in Luxembourg

📍 Environment Council meeting in Luxembourg

📍 College of Commissioners meets in Strasbourg

📍 Plenary session in Strasbourg, with debates on: Middle East peace agreement, developments in the security landscape and the police; institutional consequences for the EU of enlargement negotiations; decline of the rule of law in Malta, eight years after the assassination of Daphne Caruana Galizia; Commission work programme 2026; use of Russian assets for Ukraine; repression in Serbia; EU budget 2026; renewal of EU-Africa partnership

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Contributors: Nikolaus J. Kurmayer, Magnus Lund Nielsen, Thomas Møller-Nielsen, Jacob Wulff Wold, Elisa Braun, Natália Silenská, Aneta Zachová, Aleksandra Krzysztoszek, Sarantis Michalopoulos, Inés Fernández-Pontes, Alessia Peretti, Laurent Geslin, Jeremias Lin

Editors: Orlando Whitehead, Sofia Mandilara