Fortress Europe, delayed

Welcome to Rapporteur. This is Eddy Wax, with Nicoletta Ionta in Brussels. Got a story we should know about? Drop us a line – we read every message.

Need-to-knows:

• Migration: Belgium urges EU backing for coordinated deportations to Afghanistan
• Defence: US Secretary of War to meet NATO chiefs as EU ministers discuss support for Ukraine
• Parliament: MEPs say Ursula von der Leyen supports renewed push to end daylight saving time

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From the capital

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The EU’s new migration relocation plan – meant to turn lofty talk of solidarity into action – is already running into resistance and delays.

The European Commission was expected to publish its first “solidarity pool” report today, at the latest, outlining the burden each EU country should shoulder under the bloc’s new system for relocating migrants. The mechanism determines whether countries must relocate asylum seekers, provide financial contributions, or offer other forms of support. But the report’s release has slipped.

Migration Commissioner Magnus Brunner downplayed concerns about the delay, but many insiders warn this phase – the first real test – will decide whether the Migration Pact succeeds or fails. Everything must run smoothly to meet the implementation deadline agreed on by member states last year.

“What was meant to be a technical exercise, drafting the Annual Report, has profound political ramifications,” Alberto Horst Neidhardt, head of the European Policy Centre’s migration programme, told Rapporteur.

His warning is stark. Failure to implement the Pact could trigger a “systemic collapse” of the EU’s asylum system – a return to national controls, fraying cooperation, and a narrow focus on containment and returns, Horst Neidhardt writes in a new report he co-authored with Virginie Jacob.

Signs of strain were visible in Luxembourg on Tuesday, where home affairs ministers met. Belgium, Finland, and Austria voiced concerns about the new burden sharing system, while Poland and Hungary remain firmly opposed to it – and Czechia’s new populist government could soon join them, Nicoletta reports.

Still, not all is lost. Nicholas Ioannides, Cyprus’s deputy migration minister – whose country will steer negotiations during the Pact’s final implementation phase – insists political will remains intact. “Even before taking over the presidency, I’ve held bilateral meetings to bridge gaps or allay fears,” he told Rapporteur. “There’s goodwill by many member states to find solutions.”

Meanwhile, member states keep doing what they do best: drafting letters. Belgium has already circulated one – eventually destined for Brunner – seeking support for coordinated deportations to Afghanistan with other EU countries, three diplomats told Rapporteur. If Europe can’t agree on relocation, it might at least manage a joint communiqué.

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PURL harbour

US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth is in town today for talks with other NATO defence chiefs on how to get Europeans to cough up for American weapons. The alliance’s so-called “PURL” initiative aims to get other NATO members to pay for weapons that Ukraine can then use – but so far, only 11 countries have enrolled in the scheme, my defence colleagues report. EU defence ministers will also meet today to discuss boosting support for Ukraine, ahead of the Commission “readiness roadmap” expected to be unveiled Thursday.

Selmayr’s mooted comeback – why now?

What’s behind the possible return of Martin Selmayr we first reported on this week? Commission insiders suggest that Kaja Kallas is unhappy about key figures leaving her team, with the main point of tension centring on Simon Mordue, von der Leyen’s new diplomatic advisor.

Mordue previously served as chief diplomatic adviser to former European Council President Charles Michel, but more recently worked at the EU diplomatic service, or EEAS, as a deputy secretary general, under Kallas’ leadership.

“She’s making erratic moves aimed at hitting von der Leyen where it hurts,” an EU source said on condition of anonymity. As we’ve reported, Selmayr is said to be angling for the post vacated by Mordue. Rapporteur understands that promoting Selmayr is part of a plan by Kallas to strengthen the EEAS.

However, insiders warn that Kallas’ strategy is highly risky – challenging the German-led Commission won’t be an easy fight.

Within the Commission, frustration is also growing over Kallas’ treatment of journalist Finbarr Bermingham, a correspondent for the South China Morning Post. Bermingham reported that Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told Kallas that Beijing does not want Russia to lose in Ukraine, fearing such a defeat would shift Washington’s full attention toward China.

Kallas dismissed the report as a “Chinese leak,” prompting a strong response from the journalist.

Time waits for no EPP man

MEPs are making a fresh bid to scrap the EU’s twice-yearly clock changes. The Commission already proposed the move back in 2018, but discussions had wound down once they reached governments. Now, MEPs Seán Kelly and Pieter Liese are pressuring the Danish EU Council Presidency, in a letter seen by Rapporteur, to speed up negotiations, saying it’s an “outdated” practice that’s bad for people’s sleep, and for sectors like agriculture.

The lawmakers say they have “renewed” backing from von der Leyen. MEPs will debate the issue on 23 October in Strasbourg – just days before the clocks go back again on 26 October.

Teeing up a EUCO deal on sanctions?

EU ambassadors will convene today to discuss the bloc’s latest sanctions package on Russia – but diplomats remain sceptical that Slovakia will finally sign off after weeks of stonewalling.

Bratislava is seeking assurances from Brussels on energy prices and industrial protections before greenlighting the 19th round of restrictive measures on Moscow since the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Still, diplomats are hopeful that EU envoys might strike an agreement on the package’s content today – paving the way for Robert Fico, Slovakia’s pro-Moscow populist prime minister, to (try to) extract concessions from EU leaders at next week’s European Council in Brussels.

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The capitals

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PARIS 🇫🇷

PM Sébastien Lecornu on Tuesday headed off a Socialist motion of no confidence by offering to suspend France’s divisive pension reform until the next presidential election in 2027. The pledge, paired with a vow to avoid decree powers on the 2026 budget, steadied his week-old government – for now. But with left and far-right censure votes due Thursday, his margin for survival remains perilously thin.

BERLIN 🇩🇪

Efforts to revive Germany’s military service stumbled again after the government scrapped a planned press conference on a provisional draft allowing a lottery-based model. The Social Democrats balked at a clause that would trigger mandatory conscription if volunteer numbers fell short, exposing deep coalition rifts as Berlin tries to meet its 2035 troop targets. Defence Minister Boris Pistorius admitted the compromise strayed from his vision, casting doubt on whether a workable model can be agreed before Thursday’s debate.

ROME 🇮🇹

Italy’s Supreme Court is set to rule today on the extradition of Serhii Kuznietsov, a former Ukrainian army captain wanted by Berlin over the 2022 Nord Stream pipeline blasts. The Bologna Court of Appeal cleared his transfer last month, but his lawyer says handing him over would breach fair trial and human rights standards. Kuznietsov, 49, was arrested in Rimini in August on a European warrant, with German prosecutors accusing him of directing a six-member team that used false identities to plant explosives near Denmark’s Bornholm Island.

BRATISLAVA 🇸🇰

Robert Fico’s renewed proposal to postpone Slovakia’s local elections until 2027 has stirred political turmoil and resistance across the country. Speaking at his Smer-SD party congress, the prime minister said extending local officials’ terms would serve “the whole of Slovakia,” but opposition parties and even some coalition allies have accused him of political manoeuvring. President Peter Pellegrini has warned against constitutional changes driven by “tactical motives,” and local government associations have dismissed the plan as impractical.

MADRID 🇪🇸

Spain’s Supreme Court has moved to strip far-right MEP Alvise Pérez of his parliamentary immunity, requesting the European Parliament’s consent to pursue charges of illegal campaign financing and other offences tied to his party, Se Acabó La Fiesta. Pérez, a former influencer who rode an anti-establishment message to the EU, is accused of taking €100,000 from a crypto entrepreneur before the 2024 European elections. The case, now before Parliament’s legal affairs committee, could test the institution’s handling of populist figures facing criminal probes.

ATHENS 🇬🇷

Unions paralysed the country on Tuesday with strikes and protests against a government bill that would expand working hours to 13 a day and overhaul hiring rules. PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis’ administration argued that the reform would modernise Greece’s labour market and support productivity, but unions and opposition lawmakers warned it will erode collective bargaining power and deepen inequality in one of Europe’s lowest-income economies.

WARSAW 🇵🇱

Polish authorities said they had intercepted 23 tonnes of illegal waste transported from Germany, in the latest sign of tensions over cross-border dumping. The load, seized by the National Reserve Administration, contained a mix of plastics, aluminium, and textiles. Environment inspectors in Zielona Góra ruled it an unlawful shipment, part of a broader effort by this capital to curb imports of foreign waste.

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Schuman roundabout

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Former UK PM Tony Blair in Gaza would be a modern-day Paul Bremer, according to an Arab peace activist.

Speaking at a European Parliament event marking two years since the Hamas attacks, Saudi-born peace advocate Loay Alshareef warned that Islamist extremism, “once rooted out in the Arab world,” was finding space in Europe. He urged MEPs to back the Abraham Accords and link any recognition of a Palestinian state to leadership that rejects terrorism. Still, he told Euractiv, Israeli settlement activity in the West Bank remains harmful to the region’s peace prospects.

Alshareef also dismissed the idea of Blair overseeing an interim technocratic government in Gaza, as suggested in Donald Trump’s 20-point peace plan. “It reminds us too much of Paul Bremer,” he said, referring to the US diplomat who effectively served as chief civilian administrator of Iraq after the 2003 invasion.

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Also on Euractiv

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Beijing’s decision to tighten controls on rare-earth exports is a reminder of how effectively China can weaponise supply chain dominance, Simon Nixon, publisher of the Wealth of Nations newsletter, writes in an op-ed for Euractiv.

Europe’s late scramble for strategic autonomy in critical minerals, he warns, risks years of vulnerability as China learns to use the same trade tools once wielded by Washington. For Brussels, the timing – amid efforts to rearm and decarbonise – could hardly be worse.

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The IMF raised its eurozone growth forecast to 1.2%, citing Germany’s trillion-euro stimulus and delayed benefits from ECB rate cuts. Yet the Fund cautioned that trade tensions and fiscal uncertainty continue to weigh heavily on the outlook.

Spain’s economy is powering ahead, but the warning from IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas was clear: the recovery rests on shaky ground, and downside risks still dominate.

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Agenda

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Contributors: Sarantis Michalopoulos, Magnus Lund Nielsen, Thomas Møller-Nielsen, Alessia Peretti, Inés Fernández-Pontes, Aleksandra Krzysztoszek

Editors: Christina Zhao, Sofia Mandilara