A 'new and just' Kazakhstan? Tokayev’s balancing act is reshaping Central Asia’s dynamics

Kazakhstan is undergoing wide-ranging, globally recognised reforms under the presidency of Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, as part of his vision of building what he calls a “new and just” Kazakhstan. Xhoi Zahmi takes a closer look at Kazakhstan’s new political and economic horizon.

Tokayev’s first years in power were marked by scepticism and criticism over the continued influence of former president Nursultan Nazarbayev. He has approached reforms cautiously, acknowledging the need to modernise the country without triggering instability, insisting on a gradual, government-led transformation rather than a society-driven upheaval.

Major initiatives have been undertaken to upscale the governance system, improve citizen welfare and develop a strong and competitive economy, efforts which have been regarded as largely successful, and which have positioned Kazakhstan as a respected leader in the Central Asian region.

Parliamentary shift

Widely considered one of the most important reforms, Kazakhstan shifted from a super-presidential to a presidential-parliamentary style of government in 2022, a change outlined in Tokayev’s state-of-the-nation address.

The decision paved the way for reforms in election laws, introducing a mixed system for the lower house of Parliament (Mazhilis) and local representative bodies (maslikhats). Both were put to the test in 2023 when the new mixed system was used in elections.

To further engage citizens, Tokayev proposed electing the heads of mid-level administrative units. In 2023, Kazakhstan held its first pilot elections for district and regional city governors (akims), with a voter turnout of 62.8 per cent.

Constitutional amendments

The Constitutional Court was reinstated in the same year, following constitutional amendments approved in 2022. The court had been abolished in 1995 and before its reestablishment, a Constitutional Council served in its place.

From January 2023 to April 2024, it received over 6,700 appeals, the majority coming from citizens regarding issues such as housing, labour, social protection, bankruptcy, and access to information.

Nuclear energy

Ahead of the 2024 referendum on the construction of a nuclear power plant, there had only ever been four other referendums in Kazakhstan since the country declared independence in 1991.

The decision highlighted Tokayev’s concept of a “listening state”, especially in a topic deemed sensitive due to the country’s painful past with the use of nuclear materials. But despite concerns, almost three-quarters of voters said “yes” in the referendum.

Reforming society

Last year, Tokayev endorsed significant amendments to new laws envisaging harsh penalties for perpetrators of abuse, guaranteeing better protection of women’s rights and children’s safety.

According to the amended laws, all acts of violence towards women and children constitute crimes. Sexual harassment, kidnapping, and unlawfully imprisoning minors are now also punishable.

Balanced foreign policy

Kazakhstan’s foreign policy remains balanced, with Tokayev continuing the country’s multi-vector strategy, maintaining ties with Russia, China, the United States and the European Union.

Although in a delicate position, Kazakhstan has managed to avoid domination by either power, maintaining its autonomy while cultivating relationships with a diverse array of global partners.

Economic growth

Tokayev’s tenure is credited with an overall growth in the economy, despite contractions in 2020 due to COVID-19. GDP expanded from $181.7 billion in 2019 to $288.1 billion in 2024, with per capita GDP rising to $14,300.

Although economic diversification remains a concern, labour productivity in goods production has increased significantly, and there has been some improvement in services.

Economic growth has been largely fuelled by public spending, with rising state revenues and expenditures and Tokayev has set an ambitious goal to double GDP by 2029, requiring a higher annual growth rate.

Continuation of reforms

This year, the country is set to undergo several economic and social policy changes, with an increase in pension payments and disability benefits. The minimum wage remains yet unchanged.

To support entrepreneurship, the government is launching non-financial programmes that enhance business potential, promote women’s entrepreneurship, and provide consulting services.

The country’s economy is projected to grow by 4.6 per cent in 2025. Strategic agreements with the US and EU on hydrogen and critical minerals could boost investment, especially if new tax policies are implemented.

This is set to be a crucial year for Tokayev’s administration in meeting its investment targets and decarbonising its economy, which requires full commitment to the economic programme.

[Edited By Brian Maguire | Euractiv’s Advocacy Lab ]