Under the surface, EU migration tensions simmer

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In the capital

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For the first time in years, Europe’s migration debate appears unusually sedate. Not because the fight is over, but because member states have quietly converged around an increasingly hardline stance. Beneath the surface, however, tensions are simmering.

After the summer, the Commission will assess which nations are under the most migration pressure and decide who owes what in the EU’s new solidarity mechanism, which will shift the bloc toward centralised governance with mandatory burden-sharing.

Every country will have to chip in: either by relocating asylum seekers, coughing up cash for a common pot, or providing other forms of support. This politically sensitive calculus will drag into December, when the solidarity that Europe has been boasting will really be tested.

For now, member states are playing nice. They’re cheerfully signing joint letters, gathering over pre-EUCO “migration breakfasts,” and swapping ideas under Ursula von der Leyen’s watchful eye as she carefully takes notes for future proposals.

Not long ago, the mere mention of migration risked political chaos at the Berlaymont. Now, as one EU diplomat put it, it’s “just a standard point on the agenda.”

The formal approval of the EU’s Pact on Migration and Asylum last year ushered in a rare moment of calm. Even the bloc’s more divisive measures – such as “return hubs,” where migrants are held ahead of deportation – have lost much of their controversy. The facilities, once a symbol of the EU’s deep rifts, are being slowly reviewed in Council without major objections.

But the storm may return this autumn.

The mechanism lets the Commission factor in “Dublin returns” – sending asylum seekers back to their first country of entry – in its calculations. This could hit southern frontline countries like Italy and Greece hardest, reigniting old north-south fault lines. Member states that fail to meet its obligations risk losing EU solidarity support, and contributors will push hard to enforce compliance.

Once hard numbers land on the table – quotas, payments, responsibilities – the façade of unity may begin to crack.

Some signs of strain are already visible.

In February, Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk made clear that his country won’t implement any measure that introduces “additional quotas of immigrants in Poland.” Alongside Budapest, another usual suspect, Warsaw is just one of two EU capitals still refusing to submit a national implementation plan. The original deadline passed last December.

Still, former EU Commissioner Margaritis Schinas, one of the key architects of the pact, says he’s not alarmed.

“With their stances, they’re reminding us how they view migration policy,” Schinas told The Capitals in an interview. But “it would be suicidal for Europe to get to this point and then start dismantling it.”

A new role, the EU Solidarity Coordinator, has been created to oversee implementation. And the job is set to go to Michael Shotter, director DG Migration and Home Affairs, several sources told Euractiv. His appointment is expected to be confirmed after the summer.

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Mixed messages on US-EU trade

The EU staunchly defended what it called a “huge” new trade deal with the US yesterday – even as conflicting statements from Washington cast doubt on the scope of the agreement.

The Commission said Washington had committed to establishing a “quota system” for steel and aluminium, in which a limited quantity of the metals face tariffs below Donald Trump’s 50% rate.

But a White House “Fact Sheet” contradicted that claim: “The sectoral tariffs on steel, aluminium, and copper will remain unchanged … The EU will continue to pay 50% and the parties will discuss securing supply chains for these products.”

Pressed on the discrepancy, EU trade spokesperson Olof Gill referred reporters to the Commission’s press release, which states the exact opposite: “Together, the EU and the US will establish tariff rate quotas for EU exports at historic levels, cutting the current 50% tariffs.”

Further confusion surrounds pharmaceuticals. Gill said that the EU believes its pharma exports would only face a 15% levy after the US completes its Section 232 investigation in the coming weeks. But the US statement did not mention any delays tied to the probe.

All will be clarified in a US-EU joint statement, Gill said, which the bloc “hopes to have very soon”.

Still, Brussels seems to be preparing for the worst. The Commission said it won’t withdraw its €93 billion retaliatory package targeting US goods until the joint statement is agreed. The measures – which cover aircraft, cars and food – are set to kick in 7 August, giving negotiators a tight deadline to avoid a clash.

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EU split on suspending Israel from Horizon

Member states debated the Commission’s proposal to partially suspend Israel from Horizon Europe over the Gaza crisis – but according to several diplomats, no qualified majority emerged.

On Monday, the Commission proposed to partially bar Israeli companies from the research funding programme, specifically the part that funds defence and dual-use technologies, including military startups.

About 10 member countries – including France, Spain, Ireland, the Netherlands, Belgium – support the move, with some even pushing for tougher actions like suspending trade benefits or targeting goods from occupied territories. Hungary, Austria, Bulgaria, and the Czech Republic are firmly opposed.

Germany and Italy are still on the fence, blaming the late timing of the proposal and a need for more analysis – though they could tip the scale toward a qualified majority.

What’s next? Coreper could be reconvened, or the process might move forward through written procedure. One diplomat said action could pick up later this summer.

UK, Malta join Palestine recognition team

The UK and Malta announced Tuesday that they will join France in recognising a Palestinian state.

UK PM Keir Starmer said recognition will come unless Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s government agrees to a ceasefire in Gaza and commits to a two-state solution by September.

The US, Israel’s strongest and most influential ally, has condemned an ongoing UN conference in New York, led by France and Saudi Arabia, that seeks to bolster support for the two-state solution, calling it an “insult” and reward for Hamas.

Nine countries line up for defence cash

Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czechia, Estonia, Spain, Finland, Hungary, and Lithuania have formally expressed interest in borrowing from the EU’s €150 billion SAFE military procurement programme, the Commission said yesterday.

EU defence chief Andrius Kubilius said he expects the final number to double, with Poland and Greece already announcing plans to apply. Though Tuesday marked the soft deadline, late applications could still be accepted.

A fuller list of participating countries is expected to be released today, according to a Commission spokesperson.

Presidente? Not quite

The late Silvio Berlusconi was briefly resurrected at a German press briefing this week when officials mistakenly named the former Italian PM as an upcoming guest, only to be reminded he passed away two years ago.

Turned out the real visitor was his son, Pier Silvio Berlusconi, who was in the country to promote the family’s bid for ProSiebenSat.1, a leading German media company. The Berlusconi family’s MFE Media Group, which already holds a 30% stake, announced Monday it would raise its offer to stakeholders to take full control of the company.

Euractiv’s Nick Alipour has more on the Italian media dynasty’s latest grab at power, and why Germany isn’t thrilled about it.

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The Capitals

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BERLIN | Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán met Alice Weidel, co-leader of Germany’s far-right AfD party, in Budapest for the third time, signalling growing ties between the two. Once wary of the AfD’s more radical profile, Orbán said Tuesday they will “work together in the upcoming years” on issues such as migration and “war in our immediate neighbourhood.”

PARIS | The battle to represent this city’s poshest district has erupted into a political family feud, pitting EU heavyweight Michel Barnier against scandal-hit minister Rachida Dati – and creating a political headache for Emmanuel Macron. Read more.

THE HAGUE | The Netherlands has barred Israeli ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich from entry, accusing them of inciting violence and endorsing ethnic cleansing in Gaza. The move follows a national security report warning of Israeli political interference, and marks a sharp shift in the Dutch government’s stance toward Netanyahu’s government. Read more.

DUBLIN | The Irish High Court has rejected X’s bid to block Ireland’s Online Safety Code, ruling it aligns with EU law. The platform had claimed the code conflicted with the Digital Services Act but now says it will introduce age checks to comply. Read more.

ROME | A 15% tariff on EU goods under the new US trade deal could shrink Italy’s GDP by €6.3 billion and slash exports by more than €8.6 billion, think tank SVIMEZ has warned. Nearly 104,000 jobs are at risk, though exempting the pharmaceutical sector would significantly soften the blow.

MADRID | Spanish defence firm Indra has thrown its support behind Belgium’s potential entry into the EU’s Future Combat Air System programme, a joint effort to develop a next-gen fighter jet. Indra called the move a “positive step” amid rising geopolitical tensions. The FCAS, led by France, Germany and Spain, has been plagued by internal rifts and now faces fresh turbulence with Dassault Aviation slamming Belgium over its purchase of US-made F-35s. Read more.

BRATISLAVA | PM Robert Fico accused the UK of interfering in Slovakia’s 2023 election by funding influencers and journalists to sway public opinion. The British embassy and the article’s author have firmly denied the allegation, saying that the campaign only aimed to boost voter turnout. Read more.

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Also on Euractiv

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In an interview with Euractiv, Andrius Kubilius, the EU’s top defence official, warned that European militaries are operating at just half the strength NATO requires and urged governments to slash their reliance on American weapons.

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Every year, dozens of terminally ill patients from across Europe travel to Belgium and Switzerland, not in search of hope, but of a dignified death.

With euthanasia and assisted dying still illegal in most EU countries, many have no choice but to cross borders to end their suffering. Such a discrepancy in how the issue is handled across Europe makes it difficult for those experiencing chronic illness to plan a dignified end to the lives close to home.

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Contributors: Aurélie Pugnet, Thomas Moller-Nielsen, Charles Cohen, Jacob Wulff Wold, Elisa Braun, Nick Alipour, Chris Powers, Alessia Peretti, Daniel Eck, Charles Szumski

Editors: Christina Zhao, Sofia Mandilara