Baltics face uncertainty over US defence aid as Congress weighs cuts

Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are awaiting a decision from the US Congress that could end years of military assistance to the region.

In 2024 and 2025, Washington allocated more than $450 million to bolster defence and security in the three Baltic states, according to a US Congress report. However, reports suggest that this support could end as early as next year.

While planning for next year’s budget, US President Donald Trump’s administration made no request for funding under Section 333 (S333), which allocates funds for military training and security aid abroad, the Financial Times and other outlets reported last week.

This puts the Baltic Security Initiative (BSI), which falls under S333, at risk.

Lithuania’s foreign ministry described the move as a “possible decision to reconsider or discontinue security cooperation funding”. Meanwhile, Estonia’s defence ministry said “the current administration’s direction is to significantly cut foreign aid, but the final allocations will be determined through cooperation between the administration and Congress.”

Congress must approve the budget changes before they can take effect. In March, Republican and Democrat lawmakers presented a bipartisan bill to extend BSI funding until 2028, but it is still awaiting a hearing in the Senate’s Foreign Relations Committee.

Both Estonia and Lithuania, who were contacted by Euractiv, said their priority is to assess the situation. Estonia has recently increased its defence budget and reduced reliance on US assistance, according to its defence ministry. Lithuania said it will continue talks with the administration while awaiting Congress’ decision.

Since 2020, Latvia has received around $700 million in U.S. aid. If the BSI were dissolved, it would lose about $58 million. The defence ministry said that while American support promotes “strategic and industrial cooperation,” Europe must step up its own defence spending. With investments now reaching 5% of GDP, the ministry said “Latvia is setting an example in this regard.”

Planning ahead

In the meantime, the countries are preparing for the possibility of being defunded.

Lithuania’s foreign ministry has said that it is “currently assessing possible implications,” with a view to examining “possibilities for maintaining ongoing programmes, including through alternative funding mechanisms”.

The potential cuts come as Washington is urging Europeans to take more responsibility for their own security. An anonymous White House official told the Washington Post that the move is in line with this stance.

European allies have recently agreed to increase defence spending to at least 5% of GDP, a target that the Baltic states have also advocated.

Meanwhile, the US is reviewing its global military posture, though this process, initially expected to conclude in September, has been delayed.

The US administration has repeatedly signalled plans to withdraw troops from Europe, prompting concerns in the east about capability gaps. Last week, however, Trump said that the US could increase its military presence in Poland, which borders Belarus and Russia – a move that has been viewed as a reassurance by the Baltic states.

Washington has yet to outline its plans for the Baltic states, though it has stressed that any withdrawal would be carried out in an orderly manner.

UPDATE: This article was updated with comments from the Latvian defence ministry.

(de)